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US unveils new sanction intended to strangle Iran’s economy as conflict drags on; Tehran vows tough response_我的网站

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Drivers queue at a petrol station to refuel in Tehran, on August 25, 2026. Photo: VCG
    Drivers queue at a petrol station to refuel in Tehran, on August 25, 2026. Photo: VCG
As military strikes and diplomatic negotiations have both failed to bring an early end to the roughly six‑month‑old US-Iran conflict, Washington rolled out new sanctions against Tehran on Monday local time intended to further strangle its economy. Iran, for its part, has vowed a tougher pushback.
In a news conference on Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened new sanctions on countries refusing to cut economic ties with Iran, following recent rhetoric from Washington threatening an "economic D-Day" for Iran. 
Meanwhile, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) under the US Treasury announced secondary sanctions on nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels in multiple jurisdictions which, according to the US' claims, enable Iran's activities, including so-called nuclear and missile technology procurement, cyber operations, and oil-revenue generation networks.
According to Reuters, those sanctions targeted businesses in China, the UAE, Singapore and several other countries, including a cooking-oil refinery in France, but did not include any of the Chinese financial institutions suspected of facilitating Iran's oil trade.
In response to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laying out plans for economic asphyxiation of Iran, expanding Washington's secondary sanction threats and warning of dire consequences for countries that do not join the campaign, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a press briefing on Tuesday that China has made clear on many occasions its firm opposition to illicit unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law or the authorization of the UN Security Council. 
"Economic warfare and maximum pressure provide no solution. On the contrary, they only serve to fuel tensions and lead to risk spillover, which will disrupt the global economic and financial order, and harm the legitimate rights and interests of other countries," the spokesperson said. 
The pressing task is to facilitate the deescalation of the situation and return to dialogue and negotiation as soon as possible, Lin said, adding that China will do everything necessary to firmly safeguard its rights and interests, Lin added. Lin also said China's cooperation with Iran is conducted within the framework of international law, thus should not be disrupted.
When asked whether China has received any such timeline, as the US stated it would give countries a timeline on when to shut down the actions that it has identified, and how China intends to respond to the relevant announcements by the US Treasury involving China-based entities and individuals, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated on Tuesday that China is closely following the developments, and will do everything necessary to firmly safeguard our rights and interests.
In May this year, China's Ministry of Commerce issued a blocking ban prohibiting any recognition, enforcement or compliance with US sanctions imposed on five Chinese companies on the grounds of their alleged involvement in Iranian petroleum transactions.
Relying on its financial hegemony and long‑arm jurisdiction, the US enforces unilateral sanctions with no basis in international law. Such measures severely undermine fundamental consensus for international trade and erode the existing international order, Zhou Mi, senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Tuesday.
In essence, Washington is imposing its Iran‑focused policies to enterprises across the globe, compelling third‑party actors to fall in line with its diplomatic objectives, Zhou noted.
The latest sanctions would affect a broader range of countries, industries and firms. They will not only draw wider opposition from the international community, but also boomerang on the interests of US‑owned enterprises, he added. 
Fewer levers left 
"We are launching an economic onslaught against Iran's financial connections around the globe," Bessent claimed at a press conference. "Our objective is to sever every economic lifeline" that sustains the country, he said, according to a Treasury release. 
The US Treasury Department said in a release that the new sectoral sanctions determinations target five critical sectors - digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping - that the US claimed Iran has relied on to support its economy.
US Treasury claimed that "any entity that facilitates money laundering or sanctions evasion on behalf of Iran risks being cut off from the US financial system."
OFAC also suspended several general licenses that previously authorized certain remittance payments to Iran and Iranian access to the US cultural and academic system. The office also issued additional guidance on the so-called sanctions risks of bowing to Iranian demands related to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Mohammad Mokhber, an aide to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said in an X post on Monday that Iran's response to US sanctions and pressure will be "more decisive than before."
Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said that Tehran "is and was ready," with a two-year plan to counter Washington's new sanctions. He told state television that "it seems they wished to suffer yet another defeat," per an AFP report. 
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf responded in an X post that "the Americans know no one will believe their nonsense," noting that the US is not in a position economically to restrict its relations with other countries. 
Alan Eyre, a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, told NBC News that after six months of combat, the US government "has few remaining levers it can use to convince Iran's major trading partners to materially reduce their economic ties."
While Washington's maximum‑pressure campaign may deliver short‑term shocks to Iran's economy, it can hardly "strangle" the country completely, said Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.
He added that Iran's economic resilience cannot be underestimated. Having borne decades of crippling sanctions from the US and Western nations, Tehran has built substantial experience in sanction‑busting and developed coping mechanisms ranging from basic‑industry self‑reliance and regional trade networks to oil‑for‑goods swaps and non‑US dollar‑denominated trade. Furthermore, the Strait of Hormuz remains a source of strategic leverage for Iran to push back against US pressure.
The expert said that Tehran and Washington are encountering "a battle of wills," and Iran believes the economic costs the US would suffer from a Hormuz blockade would outweigh the damage inflicted on Iran by sanctions.
Washington's "economic strangulation" policy risks ending in failure unless it yields short‑term outcomes, particularly securing the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Liu added. 
Self-created dilemma
As the US ramps up pressure on Iran, Americans are growing averse to a protracted war.
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday, US ‌public approval of the war with Iran fell to its lowest level since the conflict's early days, with just 31 percent of Americans supporting US military action.
On June 18, the US and Iran signed an MoU, under which the two were scheduled to hold negotiations within a period of 60 days, which ended on August 17, to reach a final agreement. However, the talks' fate remains unclear following renewed escalation between the two countries.
Iranian political analyst Mostafa Khoshcheschm told Al Jazeera that the new US sanctions intended to create an "economic onslaught" were a "political show" of intimidation. 
Liu said that by resorting to an "economic strangulation" tactic after miring itself in a fruitless military quagmire over Iran, the US has laid bare its practical predicament and strategic dilemma, and seemingly running out of cards.
Citing sources, CNN reported earlier this month that the US military has exhausted nearly 80 percent of its interceptors for a key missile defense system as senior US military commanders are warning that the Pentagon's munitions stockpile is "dangerously low."
Faced with depleted ammunition stockpiles and insufficient military‑industrial capacity, and amid growing domestic criticism of its Middle East policy, the White House has opted for tough economic measures against Iran, Liu said. "Less costly than military coercion, such moves help Washington strike a tough posture before voters and shun political risks from further military escalation," said the expert.
There is, however, an increasingly obvious paradox in Washington's economic warfare against Iran: the tighter the sanctions, the tighter global energy supplies become, and the higher costs borne by American consumers and businesses, the expert added. 
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图片「坏 AI,使人笨!」作者|张勇毅编辑|靖宇「AI 用多了,人会不会逐渐变笨?」这应该是过去三年被讨论最多的一个迷思之一,从 ChatGPT 走红那天就有。吵了三年多,两边都拿不出像样的证据:担心的人只有体感,不担心的人只有立场。8 月 18 日,《经济学人》给这场争论补上了迄今最硬的一份证据。报道的主角是 2.7 万名中国中学生。用上 AI 之后,他们的作业分数平均涨了 18%,写一份作业的时间从 64 分钟缩到 45 分钟。到这里全是好消息,直到月考卷子发下来:闭卷考试里,这批学生的成绩比不用 AI 的同学低了 20%。作业分曾是最可靠的「晴雨表」:作业越好,考试越好。而在用 AI 的学生中间,作业分越高,基本等于 AI 用得越深。于是曲线变成了:用得越狠的孩子,考试跌得越惨。作业分,第一次开始撒谎。

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作业分超过 100 的人之中,不用 AI 的人分数上涨到了 112,用 AI 之后一路跳水到 64。|图片来源:经济学人《经济学人》的数据底稿,是斯德哥尔摩大学和香港大学三位经济学家 6 月挂出的论文,标题就叫《生成式 AI 学习惩罚》。

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《生成式 AI 学习惩罚》|图片来源:SSRN样本来自中国中部一个县,人口超过一百万。论文特意强调它的普通:像沿海之外的大多数中国县城。26811 名初高中生,5 所初中、4 所高中,装下当地九成中学生,从 2022 年 9 月跟到 2025 年 6 月,整整 30 个月。这个县的作业在线上提交,系统记下每个人的用时;月考、中考、高考的成绩都进数据库——写多快、考多好,第一次成了直接测量的硬数据。谁在用 AI,则来自回收率超过 96% 的全员问卷。2022 年 9 月,用 AI 的学生几乎为零。到 2025 年 6 月,这个数字是 80%

二 | 这条曲线有两次明显跳升,分别踩在 DeepSeek V2.5 和 R1 的发布点上。工具全是熟面孔:豆包、DeepSeek、文心一言、通义千问。

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采纳曲线的两次跳升,都踩在 DeepSeek 发版上|图片来源:CEPR结论就是开头那组数字:作业 +18%,用时 −30%,月考 −20%,相当于 1.4 个标准差。惩罚在各科并不均匀:社科类最重,跌 27%;数学 22%;英语 17%;语文最轻,9%。初中生比高中生惨四成,男生比女生惨。看来变笨这件事也不优待聪明人:恰恰是原来成绩最好的那批孩子,跌得最狠。升学考试的账要算得更小心。6 月底这项研究在中文互联网刷屏时,传播最广的说法是「中考暴跌 24%、高考暴跌 18%」。

三 | 论文里的原意克制得多:这是用满两年以上学生的完整惩罚,全体 AI 用户的平均效应只有 7% 左右。但这份「克制」本身才是更坏的消息:惩罚需要两年才长满。作者们专门点了一句,眼下那些几星期、几个月的短期研究,都在系统性低估 AI 的学习成本。01消失的模范生这项研究 6 月刚出现时,英文讨论中其实还有一个安慰性的结论:有两成学生用 AI 但不外包作业,成绩没受损。所以问题不在 AI,在用法。论文确实说了前半句。它给「外包」下了一个数值上的定义:作业用时少于 50 分钟算「内包」,少于 45 分钟才算是真「外包」。刚开始用 AI 的学生里,外包的占 58%。

四 | 而那些照常花时间写作业、只拿 AI 当家教的孩子,考试成绩和不用 AI 的同学几乎没有差别。论文甚至发现,在 50 到 65 分钟的重叠区间里,两类孩子花同样的时间,考出几乎一样的分数。

五 | AI 本身不带毒性,毒性全在省下来的那段时间里。如果论文停在这里,它就是一篇「工具无罪、用法有罪」的标准论文。但论文其实更深一步地探讨了这个问题:用满 5 个月之后,外包的比例从 58% 涨到 81%,完全外包从 34% 涨到 50%。那批花 65 分钟以上认真写作业的「模范用户」,全部是刚上手不到 5 个月的新手。以及采纳满 6 个月之后,没有一个 AI 学生的作业用时还超过 65 分钟。26811 人的样本里,「好好用 AI」不是一种稳定的用法,是一个维持不到半年的过渡状态。论文作者的解释很短:AI 挤掉的,是强度最高的那部分努力。

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用满六个月后,65 分钟以上的区间空了|图片来源:CEPR它不是又一篇「AI 让成绩变差」的论文,它是在撕掉一个安慰的遮羞布:只要教会孩子正确使用,一切都会好起来。数据给出的回答是,没有人能一直正确使用:毕竟作业分在涨,家长在群里点赞,老师看到的提交记录越来越整齐。每一个反馈都其实都在潜移默化中,形成一个畸形的激励机制:你做得很好,再快一点也没关系。02大人的考场看到这里,这个研究似乎跟传统我们理解中、大脑已经发育健全的成年人关系不大。但同样的曲线,过去一年多,在成年人身上已经画了四次。《柳叶刀·胃肠病学和肝病学》去年 8 月发表了一项波兰研究:四家内镜中心的 19 名资深医生,人均做过 2000 例以上肠镜,用了几个月 AI 辅助检查之后,回到没有 AI 的状态,腺瘤检出率从 28.4% 掉到 22.4%,相对下降 20%。图片和中学生的月考,同一个数字。这是医学界第一次在真实临床里测到「用 AI 之后,人的手艺生疏了」,主角还是这个星球上最不该被怀疑基本功的一群人。第二次在写作者身上。麻省理工媒体实验室去年 6 月的脑电实验里,54 名学生戴着电极帽写作文。用 ChatGPT 那组的神经连接强度垫底,比纯靠自己写的那组最多低了 55%;写完不久,83% 的人连自己文章里的一句话都复述不出来。

六 | 研究团队给这个现象起了个名字:认知负债。第三次在办公室里。微软研究院和卡内基梅隆大学去年调查了 319 名知识工作者,结论一句话就能说完:对 AI 输出越有信心的人,自己动脑核查的投入越少。第四次在程序员身上。研究机构 METR 去年的对照实验里,资深程序员用上 AI 实测变慢了,自己却觉得快了 20%。今年 2 月它想复测,没做成,原因写在报告里:大多数开发者已经拒绝在没有 AI 的情况下工作。和那个再也没人肯花 65 分钟写作业的教室,一模一样。

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脱离 AI 之后,检出率没有回到从前|图片来源:METR临床、脑电、问卷、对照实验,四次预警说的是同一件事:AI 在场,产出变好;AI 离场,能力变差。回到开头那个吵了三年多的问题。这些研究给出的答案,比一句「会变笨」更难受:AI 没有降低任何人的智商,它是把「变聪明」的那道工序抽走了。分数照涨,产出照交,只是那份本该在 64 分钟里长出来的能力,没有长。

七 | 认知科学管这个叫「认知卸载」:把本该在自己脑子里跑的过程,交给外部工具。卸载不新鲜,计算器和导航都是。新鲜的是位置:AI 接走的不是运算和记路,是打草稿、试错、推演,恰好是心智模型长出来的那道工序。落到日常工作上,这变化听着甚至像升级:从「写代码」变成「审代码」,从执行者变成把关人。但把关的前提,是脑子里有一份自己的底稿。没亲手推演过的人,审的其实是个黑箱,AI 的逻辑链一旦错在深处,他连该从哪里起疑都不知道。学生的版本更简单:作业是草稿,考试是 Debug。草稿外包出去,Debug 那天就露馅。区别只有一个。

八 | 学生每个月都有一场闭卷考试,把这条曲线摆到台面上。

九 | 而大多数成年人的工作,没有月考。论文的最后留了一点余地。把时间拉长看,AI 学习惩罚正在收窄:同样用满 5 个月,2023 年初的学生平均损失 25%,2025 年 6 月只有 16%。

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同样用满 5 个月,惩罚从 25% 收窄到 16%|图片来源:CEPR师生在适应,工具侧其实也有人想办法,比如逼 AI 给答案时同步展示推演过程。但按作者们的判断,损失在变小,却没有归零的迹象。9 月 1 日开学。全国的教室里,这场 26811 人的实验,会以更大的样本重跑一遍。以后看到孩子的作业天天 100 分,也许得先问一句:这 100 分是孩子挣来的,还是豆包挣来的。

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